Scientific Foundation

The Cumberland HCPs are being built on a foundation of solid science.   This foundation supports all decision-making, from selection of covered species based on documented occurrence records through the development of a flexible process through which new information can be used to adjust the plan (see discussion of Adaptive Management below).  One of the largest areas of scientific information needed for the HCP is the relevant biology and the habitat needs of the covered species and associated biological goals and objectives. The habitat-based approach of the Cumberland HCPs needs this solid understanding of the species needs and linkage of those needs to habitat conservation measures. 

Scientific information used in the HCP takes many forms – the scientific literature (field and laboratory studies), GIS maps and data layers, routine field monitoring, and the expertise of professional staff, experts, and stakeholders gained through years of experience in the Cumberlands.  This information is being used throughout the HCP to analyze habitat types and their relevant ecology, establish biological goals and objectives, consider the cause-effect relationships of various ecological processes, inform selection of reserves, inform the selection of conservation measures, and similar decisions.  All available biological information and understanding comes together in the HCPs’ conservation approach (see Biological Goals and Objectives in the Documents section of the Forest Resources and Cumberland pages for more information). Research papers, reports, and similar documents used during development of the HCPs are available on the Papers and Presentations page.

Take Modeling
Quantifying impacts to covered species (i.e. “take”) associated with implementation of the conservation measures is a critical component of the HCP.  Take modeling for the FRHCP was discussed in the Winter 2009/2010 HCP newsletter.  Additional background on take modeling for both HCPs will be posted here as these efforts continue.

Adaptive Management and Modeling
Adaptive management, the ability to change course as new information becomes available, is the cornerstone of contemporary conservation management.  The need for adaptive management arises out of the recognition that ecosystems are extraordinarily complex and inherently uncertain.  Just as the “No Surprises” aspect of HCPs provides regulatory assurances to address uncertainty for applicants, adaptive management provides a process to address ecological uncertainty.

Given that the HCPs contain explicit biological goals to protect covered species, two questions quickly arise: what are the key habitat requirements for the covered species; and what are the best ways to help promote long-term viability of the species?  An adaptive management framework recognizes that although we do not have final answers to these questions, we can move forward with conservation measures while improving our understanding and adjusting the approach over time.   Adaptive management is truly “learning by doing.”

There are three basic types of adaptive management: 1) trial and error; 2) passive adaptive management; and 3) active adaptive management. Trial and error is the least informed of the options, lacking a true feedback loop between information gained and actions taken on the ground.  Passive adaptive management is a more structured approach that uses predictive modeling to select an initial implementation approach, then as new knowledge is gained, models are updated and the implementation approach adjusted.  While the goal of passive adaptive management is to improve the initial management approach, the goal of active adaptive management is to learn by experimentation in order to determine the best management strategy.  Both passive and active adaptive management provide significant scientific rigor in the evaluation and application of monitoring data collected over time.

 The Adaptive Management strategy for the Forest and Cumberland HCPs is primarily a passive approach.  Because of the certainty required through the HCP and Incidental Take Permit process, the HCPs are starting with solid set of initial conservation measures.  The intent of the adaptive management strategies is to refine this approach over time by informing areas that were initially sources of uncertainty.  The basic adaptive management approach in the Cumberland HCPs is as follows

• Establish clear objectives and testable theories
• Design a scientifically defensible monitoring program
• Establish a process through which the monitoring data is regularly evaluated
• Change the conservation measures in response to the results of those evaluations

Monitoring is the key element of a successful adaptive management strategy.  The Cumberland HCP monitoring strategies have three basic components:

• Implementation of conservation measures in the field;
• Ecological and habitat metrics identified as biological goals and objectives; and
• Species population status.

As the adaptive management and monitoring strategies are developed, they will be posted in the Documents section of the Forest Resources and Cumberland HCP pages. In the interim, contact the HCP Science Coordinators for the latest information.